(Original article published on July 2, authored by Kevin Pelton of ESPN website, the content of the article does not represent the translator's opinion)
Bucks and center Miles Turner reached a four-year contract worth $107 million
Rating: B-
For multiple reasons, this is perhaps the most shocking trend in the NBA free agent market since Paul George was traded to the Clippers in 2019, which prompted Leonard to sign the Clippers several weeks after winning the Finals MVP).
Turner, who just started on behalf of the Pacers to compete in the seventh game of the NBA Finals 9 days ago, seemed to be bound to renew his contract with the Pacers. Meanwhile, the Bucks' first day of free agent market showed that they would remain in super hats and use full middle class specials to replace the team's starting center Lopez, whose free agent market ambitions seem to be more conservative.
With two-time MVP Antetokounmpo closely following the Bucks' offseason operations to evaluate the future prospects of staying at the team, the Bucks' ambitions are far more than that. It can be clearly seen from the largest extension clause in NBA history that the $112.6 million contract renewal that Lillard will be effective today will be shared for the next five seasons until the end of the 2029-30 season. The Bucks have $22.5 million in "dead money" on their salary book every year.
This operation alone is not enough to create the salary space the Bucks need to sign Turner. The Bucks then reached a deal with the Hornets, sending Connaughton and draft picks for Misic. If the Bucks can reach a buyout agreement with Misic, who has long been rumored to return to Europe this season, they can fill the salary difference.
From multiple dimensions, Turner can be called the young version of the Greater Lopez. The latter's joining helped the Bucks start the era of championship competition. For the Bucks, the ideal solution is to have a center that can not only protect the basket (relieve Antetokounmpo's defensive pressure) but also open up the offensive space. In addition to the 37-year-old Lopez, only Horford (two years older than Lopez) in the free agent market.
This makes the 29-year-old Turner the only realistic choice for the Bucks. They hope that Turner will spend the rest of his peak years with Antetokounmpo, hoping to be in Milwaukee all the time. Turner just scored his best three-point performance in his career, averaging 2.2 three-pointers and a 40% three-point shooting percentage. His 36% three-pointers in his career are slightly better than the performance of Lopez during his seven-year career with the Bucks.
Turner's defensive ceiling is slightly inferior to Lopez, who ranked fifth in the highest ranking of the best defensive player of the year, while Lopez ranked second in the 2022-23 season. But before Siakam joined, Turner often had to take on the role of guardian of the Pacers' penalty area alone, and he had never partnered with a powerful defender as Antetokounmpo. According to GeniusIQ's website's tracking of advanced NBA data, the opponent's shooting percentage this season was slightly higher than that of Turner when facing the slowdown in Lopez within five feet of the basket.
The two centers faced each other in the first round of the playoffs, the contrast between Lopez and Turner was fully demonstrated. Turner averaged 16.8 points and 2.2 blocks per game, helping the Pacers advance in five games and continued their strong performance until the Eastern Conference Finals. Lopez scored only 8 points and 1 block in the last three games against the Pacers, and even gave way to the starting position to substitute Portis in the final game of the series (now confirmed to be the last game of his Bucks' career).
However, Lopez is not the only main reason for the Bucks to be eliminated. The wing combination Kuzma and Prince are completely invisible, and the two made 14 of 45 shots and scored only 35 points. At present, the Bucks have not taken any reinforcement measures to address this shortcoming.
If the Bucks are really determined to compete for the championship as shown in this operation, they must use their remaining draft assets (unprotected first-round picks in 2032, plus first-round picks that can be swapped with the Pelicans or the Trail Blazers in 2031) to upgrade Kuzma's position. The ideal replacement, Cameron Johnson, has reached a deal on Monday to join the Nuggets and missed the opportunity to join.
If the reinforcement fails, although the Bucks' creativity and courage in this operation are worthy of recognition, there is still a gap between the team from the championship competition. Cutting Lillard means giving up the possibility of a strong return in the playoffs after suffering from an Achilles tendon rupture, and Turner is only the third choice at most in the Pacers offensive system. Now he is the only player in the Bucks who averages more than 15 points per game this season except Antetokounmpo.
If Antetokounmpo decides to leave the Bucks in the future, the good news is that the transaction value of this contract of Turner will be higher than that of Lillard who gets the maximum salary. But the disadvantage is that the Bucks' future reconstruction will be subject to two points: their inability to control their own draft picks and the salary burden brought by Lillard's contract extension. According to the labor agreement, after the team completes the contract extension, the amount of dead money must not exceed 15% of the current salary cap, which means that the Bucks may no longer be able to use extension clauses for other high-paying players in the next five years.
The situation is even more serious for the Pacers, who lost the finals hero at the end of Turner's peak. Pacers can now use the full $14.1 million middle class special case to find a replacement (not triggering the luxury tax line yet), and if the Bucks offer is matched, a rotation player will need to trade to avoid taxes.
But small market teams like the Pacers are just one step away from the championship. Although Halliburton's Achilles tendon rupture in the G7 in the Finals would change expectations for next season, Turner could have continued to be the team's core starter after Halliburton fully recovered in the 2026-27 season.
Pacers are already facing a deep crisis in the center, and two substitutes (Isaiah Jackson and Wiseman) have suffered Achilles tendon ruptures during the regular season this season. They can only rotate veterans Thomas Bryant (full free agent) and Tony Bradley (executive team options) in the playoffs. Therefore, no one in the Pacers can fill Turner's vacancy in both short and long term.
Original text: Kevin Pelton
Compiled by: Li Taibai