This is exactly why the league discusses where Antetokounmpo is going. The superstar's career has reached a crossroads, and the current situation of only two years of guaranteed contracts is the best window for the Bucks to realize the value of the transaction. If Antetokounmpo decides to leave the team, the surprising lottery results will provide the Bucks with an excellent trading opportunity.
Although the league generally believes that the Mavericks will not trade Antetokounmpo with Flag, the Spurs' draw of the second pick may also be the best situation for the Bucks. Given Dylan Harper's superstar potential and the dividends of his rookie contract, he is likely to be the best bargaining chip in Antetokounmpo's trade, of course it depends on whether the Spurs are willing to give the second pick.
There is no doubt that the Bucks can completely use the Spurs to hold the second pick and are interested in Antetokounmpo, and put pressure on other suitors, such as the Rockets are regarded by the league sources as Antetokounmpo's potential suitors. Before the lottery draw, the Spurs had no assets of the same level as Shin Kyung or Amen Thompson except Wenban Yama. Castle's deal value is divided: some executives are optimistic about its potential, while others are concerned about its projection efficiency. Now that the Bucks can win the second place, the Bucks can prompt the two teams to start a bidding war. The league believes that Harper's four-year rookie contract is priceless. In addition, the Bucks can also put pressure on the Nets to demand all future first-round picks. If the Raptors want to join the competition, they may find it difficult to save Scotty Barnes.
Even the 76ers draw the Tanhua lottery is also good for the Bucks. The league recognizes that the 76ers president is one of the executives best at operating superstar transactions. Although the value gap between the second pick and the Tanhua lottery in this year's draft is significant, this also provides the Bucks with additional options.
Some people may think that no team will pay enough chips to get Antetokounmpo out of the Bucks, but this possibility is slim. After all, this superstar at the peak has just scored 30 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists in the monster-level season. It has been ranked among the top four in the MVP voting for seven consecutive years, and has even continued to evolve in mid-range jump shots and other aspects. Compared with the market when the Pelicans traded Davis in 2019 (changing back to two top five rookies Ingram and Ball, as well as Josh Hart, the fourth pick, two future first-round picks and one first-round swap right), Antetokounm's trading value is obviously higher now. Not only is he a strong contender for the best player in the active service, his competitive level is also far better than Davis when he was traded.
Of course, the premise of all this is that the Bucks put Antetokounmpo on the shelves, at least they have not done so yet. The real draft starts with the 76ers. The 76ers are also ready to make full use of their luck in drawing the Tanhua Lottery. With the Bucks standing at the intersection, the Cavaliers' continued playoff struggles and Tatum's Achilles tendon injury could result in reimbursement next season, the competitive landscape in the East has never been so open. If Embiid can take advantage of this summer to recover from a knee injury, the 76ers are likely to rejoin the ranks of Eastern Conference competitors.
It is expected that 76 people will listen to the quotes on the Tanhua sign, but it is still unclear who will choose if the signing position is retained. Rutgers' Es Bailey is seen as the highest-cap bet, theoretically filling the demand for the 76ers on a large wing. Scouts and executives generally believe that Pele will need longer to train, and the 76ers management will likely have to use its record to maintain its job next season. It is worth noting that the league teams generally evaluate Baylor University's Edgecombe's overall performance than Bayley.
76ers management has always attached importance to the evaluation results of pre-draft data analysis models, and Bailey performed mediocrely in these models, with inefficient scoring, weak passing intentions and poor assist-and-turnover ratios all score-deductible. Although the model is not the only criterion for the decision-making of the 76ers (the team of scouts led by the vice president of player personnel, Karanva and Antonian, under the 76ers president, has grown in recent years), if the 196ers lottery is finally retained, Pele will probably not be their choice.
This raises the question of the adaptability of subsequent rookies to the lineup. Edgecomm is the smallest player in my top 15 draft list. Is he compatible with the backcourt combination of Maxie, McCain and restricted free agent Grimes? The 76ers may also directly choose the strongest of the remaining players: Trey Johnson's shooting ability is certainly suitable for the systems of Maxi, Embiid and Paul George, but its defensive hidden dangers will make it worse for the already short 76ers' backcourt; Kniper may be the strongest choice, but most scouts believe that his upper limit is not high; some executives also consider whether to use this high pick to choose Duke center Maluach as Embiid's substitute, but with the 76ers' president's style, this choice may be difficult to maximize the current championship window.
If you have to predict the direction of the 76ers (again, this is only my personal interpretation), if you retain the draft pick, I think the possibility of choosing Edgecom and Knipel is higher than that of Bailey. Of course, this judgment may change as the team conducts trial training in the next month and improves the evaluation process, but for now, the first two players are more in line with the multi-dimensional needs of the 76ers than Pele.
In the end, the best strategy may be to find a team that is eager to surpass the Hornets, Jazz and Pelicans, and let the opponent take the risk of Bailey or Edgecomb. For example, will the Nets be willing to use Cameron Johnson, the No. 19 and No. 27 to exchange Oubre, Drummond and the No. 33 draws? This deal allows the Nets to retain the No. 8 draw while betting on a high-level potential stock, and can also continue to strengthen with another final first round sign.. For the Sixers, they will gain the on-the-fly power - Cameron Johnson (the key puzzle for the next two years), and use two first-round final picks to supplement the wings (such as the No. 19 pick Nick Clifford, Liam McNeley, Noah Penda or Will Riley) and the substitute inside (such as the No. 27 pick Ryan Calke Brenner), thereby systematically filling the lineup loopholes.
If Eric Gordon is sent to the Nets and Drew Timmy is sent to the 76ers, the deal is almost completely balanced in salary, considering the cost difference between the $11.1 million for Tanhua's rookie contract (calculated based on 120% of rookie contracts) and the total $6.6 million for No. 19 and No. 27 signs. After this operation, the 76ers still have about 22 million space from the second rich line, which can not only renew Grimes, but also retain the room for using the Mini Middle Class to renew Yabussele.
This will build a seven-player rotation with Maxi, Grimes, Paul George, Cameron Johnson, Embiid, McCain and Yabuselle as the core. The substitute center can be played by rookie or Adem Bona, Jared Butler is the fourth guard, and Justin Edwards and rookie wings share rotation time. Of course, the upper limit of the 76ers always depends on Embiid's health. As long as he returns to his peak, this lineup is already competitive enough. There are many other variants of similar transaction frameworks, and the above is only one of them. As the draft progresses, the Sixers are undoubtedly a team worthy of close attention, and their decisions will directly affect the reshaping of the Eastern Conference pattern.
point guard draft death range?
Any point guard who lacks off-ball ability is better pray that he can be selected in the first eight picks in the first round, otherwise the waiting time on draft night may be far beyond expectations. With the Mavericks unexpectedly winning the No. 1 pick, the team's demand for point guards at the end of the lottery zone has become extremely unclear.
From the 9th pick to the 15th pick, it is difficult to find a point where the point guard does not have the ability to do without the ball:
Raptors (the 9th pick): They have locked Quickley with a long-term contract, and substitute Jamal Sheder in the cheap contract, and have Scotty Barnes and Ingram holding points, and then choosing the point guard seems redundant.
Rockets (10th pick): Van Vreet has the team option in hand, and Shepard's performance in the Tanhua show last year even satisfies the management.
Trail Blazers (11th pick): The backcourt combination of Scudt Henderson, Anthony Simmons and Shetton Sharp has taken shape. Although it may be traded for Simmons, sources revealed that the Trail Blazers are delighted with Henderson's progress in the second half of the season.
Bulls (12th pick): A large contract renewal will be offered to Gidedi soon.
Hawks (13th pick): Trae Young's presence makes it difficult for other point guards to gain room for growth.
Spurs (14th pick): The current saturation status of their point guard position has been detailed in the previous article.
Thunder (15th pick): Alexander was in charge, and he also selected Topic and Ajay Mitchell last year.
Starting from the 16th pick, the Magic may consider choosing a point guard. The Timberwolves, with the 17th overall pick last year, chose Rob Dillingham for the first round of pick in the future, and the Wizards (18th overall pick) also chose Carrington for the signing that Avdia traded last year.
The current draft pick may change - the Nets, Magic, Jazz and other teams may use draft assets to trade upwards to lock in their favorite targets. This is very likely to happen, but can all point guards be so lucky? Judging from the current situation, players such as Jeremiah Fells, Nolan Traore, and Jersey Richardson should pray that they can be selected in the top eight picks in the first round, otherwise their agents would have to make crazy calls and find teams willing to trade upwards.
Original text: Sam Vecenie
Compiled by: Li Taibai