The 2024-25 season finals once again "the remaining ones are king". When Halliburton, who had played in a closed game, fell to the ground in pain, his calf injury worsened into a torn Achilles tendon, and the balance of victory fell to the Thunder.
Lillard, Tatum, Curry, Halliburton... There are more than these four people on the injury list in the playoffs. When the injury wave affects the playoff trend and reduces the viewing of the game, more and more industry insiders call on the league to reduce the schedule and reduce 82 regular season games to 65 or 66 games. Is it possible for the league to reduce the schedule? Xiao Hua had already responded before the start of the finals: "This plan doesn't work, I can't see any benefits of reducing the number of games." As for the reasons, Xiao Hua said it bluntly: "Money is definitely part of the reason. There is no doubt that we are a business alliance."
On one side is the health of the players and the economic interests, which are both demanded and difficult.
In December 2012, the Spurs arranged the GDP combination and Danny Green to rest in the focus battle with the Heat. At that time, the Spurs were on a six-game trip and were struggling, but the league officials punished the Spurs with $250,000 on the grounds that the Spurs violated the rules.
At that time, fans did not understand Popovich and the Spurs, and thought that NBA players had such high salaries, why did they have to take a turn for the rest? As the number of injuries increased, the teams that had rarely had round rest began to understand the Spurs and became Spurs.
In the 2016 playoffs, the impact of the injury surge on the NBA reached a peak for a period of time. According to statistics, before entering the finals, the main rotation players of the teams participating in the playoffs (defined as the top 7 players per team per game) missed 61 playoff games due to injury, setting a 20-year record, three times that of the period from 1996 to 1999. From 2012 to 2016, players missed 217 games due to injuries, 105 more games than in the five years from 2007 to 2011.
The league has begun to find ways to resist the injury wave. In the 2017-18 season, the league extended the schedule by a week to better arrange the regular season schedule and reduce back-to-back games. The All-Star Weekend was extended by 3 days to give players more recovery time. The league has added two two-way contract quotas, giving the team more choices when deploying troops.
Despite the league's efforts, judging from the number of games players missed due to injuries, especially the number of games star players missed, the injury rate has not only not decreased but has increased. In January 2024, the NBA officially released a statistics on the number of games missing from star players (defined as players selected for the All-Star or Best Team in the season or the first two seasons) due to injury. The results showed that the number of games in the 1980s was 10.4 games, 10.6 games in the 1990s, 13.9 games in the 1900s, increased to 17.5 games in the 1910s, and reached an exaggerated 23.9 games in the 1920s.
Before the start of the 2023-24 season, the league introduced new attendance regulations, requiring players to play at least 65 games before they are eligible to participate in the award selection. One of the major goals of this move is to crack down on the rest of the round. Xiao Hua was very satisfied with the new attendance rules. He said: "The number of players participating in the competition has increased, and the injuries have decreased." But has the injuries have really decreased? This season, injury expert Jeff Stotts statistics said that as of the end of the regular season, the total number of players absent due to injuries reached 6,525 games, compared with 5,681 games in the same period last season.
Many people are confused. The nutritional guarantee and training philosophy of modern players is obviously far beyond the past, and there are also sports science assistance. Why are their attendance rates not as good as those of the older generation of players?
"The pace and space of the game," said Warriors coach Cole, who is the pioneer in calling for the league to reduce the schedule, even if he was a player, he attended four times. "When I played, I didn't have to run 30 feet away, and now you have to defend it. In the past, the movement range was very small, and now the movement range is very wide, and the players have to defend the whole game, and everyone's game pace is faster."
If we only look at the number of match rounds, some seasons in ancient times were faster. But because the league has entered the three-point era, players' running distances on both ends of offense and defense are far greater than that. Kerr said: "There are data to prove that players in today's era have much more running distances than they did 15 years ago or 20 years ago, which is easy to count."
In the view of the late Lakers star Kobe, the rhythm and space are just simple reasons found based on the backward pressure of injury waves. The deeper reason is that these players have played AAU Championships since they were very young, and even played multiple games a day during the summer vacation, and their bodies were seriously worn out.
Kobe's view was supported by the famous sports science laboratory P3. Through physical testing of a large number of players, the P3 laboratory found that most players had some physical problems when entering the NBA, which limited their performance because they were under huge loads at a very young age.
"From the perspective of training and nutrition, can we find ways to protect players and make up for the physical damage caused by playing basketball every day since childhood?" Kobe once thought, "I don't know the answer."
This source-based question has no solution.
So in the end, NBA industry insiders can only consider it from the perspective of "reducing the schedule". Cole supports the NBA to reduce the regular season from 82 games to 65 games, and he even sends emails to lobby Xiao Hua.
Many players also support reducing the schedule, such as Lakers star LeBron James, former Mavericks star Nowitzki, etc. Lillard also said: "Reducing the number of games will allow me to perform at a higher level. If I don't have to play so many games, I will be more energetic and have lighter steps."
An NBA boss believes that whether to reduce the schedule needs to be considered comprehensively, because the schedule is only one factor. Training, preseason, physical training, sleep, nutrition, and long-distance travel are also factors that cause fatigue injuries.. But in Kobe's opinion, things are not that complicated. Reducing the schedule can solve all the above problems. "The key is whether they are willing to make efforts to turn the situation around?"
So far, no one is willing to advance the proposal to reduce the schedule. Every time this topic becomes a hot topic, Xiao Hua always makes excuses with "no evidence to prove that the schedule is related to the number of injuries."
The reason is very simple, commercial interests. Short-term interests are placed before long-term interests.
As early as 1984, Pat Riley, then the Lakers coach, believed that for the health of the players and to improve the quality of the game, the NBA needed to shorten the schedule by 10%. But Riley also understands that reducing the schedule means that everyone has to accept a 10% reduction in income.
Riley asked the Lakers physician Gary Witty: "Are you willing to accept a 10% reduction in income?"
Vitty's annual salary at that time was $37,000, and he replied: "I can't afford to reduce $3,700."
"This is the reality. No one is willing to accept a salary cut, no one is willing."
The NBA signed an 11-year TV broadcast contract worth $76 billion, and the league's basketball-related income soared, the salary cap continued to rise, and the salary of players would also increase significantly. It is conceivable that the first NBA player with an annual salary of $100 million will soon appear. Who would be willing to reduce their income by 10% when you have the opportunity to make a lot of money?
"Reducing the schedule will definitely lead to a decrease in revenue, and I don't have to look at the account book to know. There are fewer games, even the revenue of the stadium convenience store will decrease, and ticket sales will also decrease," James said.
Nowitzki also interpreted: "I have always understood that it is about money. Every time a game is missing, the league, the boss, and the players will lose money. I understand all this, so I don't think the schedule will be reduced in the short term."
If the schedule cannot be shortened, can you consider shortening the 48-minute game time to 44 minutes or even changing the FIBA ββto 40 minutes? If you want to choose between reducing the schedule and shortening the game time, Xiao Hua tends to the latter. He once said that "two-hour game broadcasts are more in line with the viewing habits of modern people. Two-hour TV programs are more attractive." Moreover, shortening the game time will not reduce the number of games and affect revenue.
However, the US media has voted, and 78.4% of the players chose to object, with many reasons:
48 minutes were shortened to 40 minutes, and the game would be much less suspense. Under the 48-minute match system, teams that are 20 points behind have enough time to catch up points, and the number of major reversals will be reduced after shortening the game time.
NBA is now in its heyday of role player talent. The biggest change in today's NBA compared to the past is the improvement in the quality and number of role players. Shortening from 48 minutes to 40 minutes, the playing time the substitute players will get will be reduced, and the team will be built will also change. More teams will concentrate their money on the five main players, and then fill the lineup with basic salary, and the middle class will be destroyed.
So, although Xiao Hua admitted that he was interested in the proposal to shorten the game time, he also said that "this requires long-term consideration."
As James said before, in the final analysis, the most important wealth in the NBA is players. If a player is injured because of the heavy load, what are the ratings and attendance rates? Next season, Tatum, Halliburton and Lillard may be reimbursed for the season, Irving may miss a large number of games, and the NBA will lose a lot of highlights.
The league cannot find a good solution for the time being when taking into account both the health and economic interests of players. The league can only hope that the long rotation mode that the Thunder and Pacers have successfully achieved this season can become the new mainstream. Each team can increase the development of the depth of rotation, tap the potential of role players, and give the main players more rest time to reduce the burden and reduce the probability of injury.